Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. My group is supposed to come up with a couple competing hypotheses though and i. The paper also argues that the achsl approach allows uncertainty of evidence, opinion about their in. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. The theory of analysis of competing hypotheses over the years, intelligence community practitioners have developed or adapted a range of simple or more complicated structured analytic techniques sats to aid in conducting intelligence analysis. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid. Absence of terrorist offensive during 1991 gulf war.
It is designed to help analysts avoid confirmation bias in several respects, namely, by explicitly requiring them to a consider alternative hypotheses. Stepbystep outline of analysis of competing hypotheses 1 identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. Free computer program for analyzing multiple hypotheses. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. Multiple competing hypotheses, predictive analysis and hypothesis management, novel intelligence.
The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. As such, we compared four hypotheses for the purposes of this exercise. At which stage of the analysis of competing hypotheses would a hypothesis like the boy ran for an hour at 20 miles per hour be eliminated. A nation state or stateaffiliated actor conducting a disruptive operation h3. Based on the required readings, lecture materials, scenario, and video for week 6, you will turn in a word processing document with the following elements. Ach is designed to ameliorate these problems with intuitive intelligence analysis that arise from human psychology. And to be honest i dont work in fashion i work in analytics for a fashion company. Milo and i organize a workshop on tuesday, may 29 on ach analysis of competing hypotheses. How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach improve intelligence analysis. What i want to share with the digital analytics community is continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. An analysis of competing hypotheses for the tesco bank. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Hart series 1, no 34 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities national defence university department of strategic and defence studies.
Saddam public statement of intent not to retaliate. Proceed by rejecting or eliminating hypotheses, while tentatively accepting only those that cannot be refuted. Post your analysis to the lesson 7 discussion forum. An analytic technique created at the cia, ach helps you analyze complex situations with multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence. For many empirical issues, the science gives a conflicted picture. Heuer heuer1999 later developed a protocol called analysis of competing hypotheses ach in part to address analysts susceptibility to deception. Remember to include assumptions, logical deductions. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national security, defence, trade, etc. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and. The sach maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones.
Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach essay example. Analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data.
Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic dtic. Steps 4 and 5 are where the process is susceptible to bias. Heuer spent 45 years gaining experience in intelligence and security working for the central intelligence agency cia. Isbn 9789512525751 pdf issn 12364959 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities john d. Novemberdecember 2006, structured analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses premium essay help. The method of analysis of competing hypotheses ach consists of the following steps. Manson department of anthropology, university of michigan, ann arbor primate social groups frequently contain multiple males. Statistical hypotheses the alternative hypothesis is established by observing evidence data that contradicts the null hypothesis and supports the alternative hypothesis hypotheses are always about population parameters h o. People often ask me how i went from working for the government to fashion. I get a lot of requests to discuss further the application of intelligence analysis to business, so today ill discuss the uses and limitations of a common analytic technique one tool that i teach at ie is the analysis of competing hypotheses ach. My hypothesis is if ambush bug coloration determines where on a goldenrod flower they will be located then females should be found on top of the flower because they are yellow matches the flower the alternative hypothesis is that ambush bug coloration has no effect on where they are found on the flower. A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses article pdf available in policing 5. For example, two tested hypotheses could be that iraq has wmd or iraq does not have wmd.
Improving a tested intelligence methodology pdf, competitive. Richards heuer is the author of psychology of intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypothesis ach brunel university. In particular, the analysis phase involves the management of hypotheses and the application of prior knowledge. How to reduce analytical bias by applying analysis of.
An unsophisticated financiallymotivated cybercriminal actor h2. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Summary the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Heuer at the cia, but it is remarkably useful in business as well. Ach is a structured analytical technique designed to enable analysts to establish the consistency and inconsistency of all available data points with a selection of possible hypotheses. I cited, for example, the paper by valtorta, marco et al. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against all the hypotheses. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. You will also find instructions and tutorials for the ach software at the pherson associates, llc web site. A good strategy for solving the puzzle is to apply the analysis of competing hypotheses technique.
Therefore, we can adapt the ach steps, as described below, to resolve goal con. The penultimate section presents the analysis of an hypothetical crime problem using ach. A pdf of this type expresses the uncertain probability that a process will. Competing hypotheses ach approach, 7, 12 as a basis for reasoning about alternative hypotheses as part of the process of intelligence analysis an approach that is referred to as achsl. Many of these, like brain storming, key assumptions checks, what if, red teams, or devils advocacy are widely used in many forms of analysis. While malware may initially be developed and used by a single actor, this does not mean that it will permanently remain unique to that actor. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Ach is an analytic tool originally developed by richards j. Make a list of all the information, key assumptions, and absence of evidence that are relevant to the issue.
Malware samples might be accidentally or intentionally leaked, stolen. A condensed version of this has been published as can we do better than ach. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. Hypotheses with the most minuses should get the most consideration. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve.
I believe neither of these scenarios, but im hard put to come up with alternatives. Like the role of sleep in memory consolidation, the effect of caffeine on cognitive function, or. In this section, we describe the four steps of hypothesis testing that were briefly introduced in section 8. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a law enforcement process that can prevent cognitive biases and,since the matrix leaves a trail of evidence, it can be traced back easily to reevaluate if something goes wrong. A comparable effort has to be devoted to the science of analysis. By clicking on or navigating this site, you accept our use of cookies in accordance with our cookie policy close this message. At which stage of the analysis of competing hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is an intelligence tool that was developed and used by the central intelligence agency cia where it functions as a scientific method to analyze evidence to attempt to disprove hypotheses 1.
Intelligence analysis often tackles questions shrouded by deep uncertainty, such as those that deal with chemical and biological terrorism or nuclear weapon detection. A tool for generating, structuring, and analyzing multiple hypotheses. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for. The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ach. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. An introduction no continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses. Ach is a process by which analysts make more objective conclusions from multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence.
This effort has to start with a clear understanding of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the primary analytic mechanismthe human mindand the way it processes information. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a free computer program used to evaluate multiple hypotheses. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is most. To complete the ach steps of fusion and conclusion. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ach or not when. Multiple people can collaborate on a single problem, and ach will compare everyones analyses and pinpoint the precise areas of disagreement, allowing for a more focused debate. Structured analysis of competing hypothesessachtakes achfurther and deeper, adding structure and automation that permit the analyst to go beyond fis first estimate and discover ot only what he does not know. Analysis of competing hypotheses digital forensics.
Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. The analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic achsl 2 was developed to address a range of intelligence analysis issues, including susceptibility to deception, and is an. The next section describes analysis of competing hypotheses ach, an intuitive, structured method of evaluating evidence for and against a range of hypotheses, designed to avoid three common cognitive biases in decisionmaking. The analysis of competing hypotheses method, or ach, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analysts bench. A sophisticated financiallymotivated cybercriminal actor h1. In response to this ambiguous situation, digital shadows has applied the technique of the analysis of competing hypothesis ach to the available data. Ach is a tool originally developed by richards heuer at the cia to analyze complex and uncertain situations. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. No less than four full pages of written text explaining your use of analysis of competing hypotheses. How do you get on top of the literature associated with a controversial scientific topic. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses theory and application chido on. In dealing with such questions, the task falls on intelligence analysts to assemble collected items of information and determine the consistency of the body of reporting with a set of conflicting hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem.
It is widely used in intelligence and international politics, but milo and i think it applies equally well to business for strategic decision making. Male group size has been hypothesized to result from male mating competition, but the. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. Analysis by competing hypothesis linkedin slideshare. The computer tool is to a large extent based on two established analytical methods, morphological anal ysis and analysis of competing hypotheses, and aims to. This honours project builds off the information visualizations explored by robert jeffery pardoe. Analysis by competing hypotheses a business tool from the psychology of intelligence analysis by richards j.
How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach pherson. Stepbystep outline of analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses discover your solutions llc. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis.
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